Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:06 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if Paola Vargas Arciniega is elected governor of the Mexican state of Nayarit in the 2027 vote, currently scheduled for 6 June 2027; otherwise NO. An interim or caretaker governor does not count as the winner. Broad agreement among reliable election reports decides; if those reports leave the outcome ambiguous, official results from Nayarit and Mexican government bodies, such as the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and Mexico's National Electoral Institute (INE), decide. If the winner is someone other than Paola Vargas Arciniega, or no winner is definitively known by 31 December 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this prediction settles NO. The answer follows the election result; later changes in who holds the office do not alter it.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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