Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Dong Jun at a 9% chance, ahead of Wang Huning at 5% and Ding Xuexiang at 4%.
This market resolves to “Yes” if either of the following occurs by January 1, 2027 at 05:59 CET. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.” 1) The listed individual is removed from, or resigns from, their primary political post or from any position they hold on the Chinese Politburo or its Standing Committee, and a consensus of credible reporting describes that departure as a “purge,” an “ousting,” or similar, or indicates that it presumably or definitively resulted from corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or loss of political favor. 2) The listed individual is expelled from the Chinese Communist Party. Any qualifying announcement or credible reporting of a purge made before the market deadline will be enough for an immediate “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the resignation, removal, or expulsion actually takes effect. A departure at the end of a normal scheduled term will not qualify. Nor will a resignation or removal that is not described by a consensus of credible reporting as a purge, ousting, or similar, or as presumably or definitively resulting from corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or loss of political favor. The resolution sources for this market will be information from the Chinese government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
