Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democratic margin 6 to 9% at a 25% chance, ahead of Democratic margin 9 to 12% at 19% and Republican margin 0 to 3% at 16%.
Use the certified count from the 2026 IA-01 U.S. House election, scheduled for 3 November 2026. For the two highest vote-getters, divide each valid-vote total by all valid votes and take the absolute percentage-point difference. YES belongs to the one answer whose party and margin interval contain that result; the other answers are NO, so exactly one bracket is selected. A value exactly on a boundary goes into the higher bracket. Democratic and Republican options mean the nominees of those parties; an independent is not assigned either party. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement inherits that party option. If the top vote is tied, two listed candidates use the lower bracket for the ballot surname that comes first alphabetically; a listed/unlisted tie uses the listed candidate's lower bracket; a tie among only unlisted candidates is Other. Use the state authority's certified result. A recount keeps the outcome pending until certification. If no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, choose Other. An overwhelming body of reputable reporting may also support the certified result.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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