Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:59 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 87% chance and No at 13%.
YES if the Democratic nominee (currently Sherrod Brown) receives the most valid votes in Mahoning County in Ohio's special election for U.S. Senator, scheduled for 3 November 2026. All candidates, including any independent, are ranked by valid votes in the county; an exact tie is broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. If that party replaces its nominee before election day, the replacement nominee counts instead. If any other candidate leads the county, including the other party's nominee or an independent, NO. If the county result is not definitively known by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. The outcome follows broad agreement among reputable reports; where anything is unclear, only the official results from the Ohio Secretary of State and the Mahoning County government decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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