Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 09:19 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 23% chance and No at 77%.
YES if Democrats win exactly 5 of Ohio's voting U.S. House seats in the 2026 midterms, counting the contests that determine membership of the 120th Congress; otherwise NO. Qualifying runoffs count. Exclude special elections for the remainder of an existing term even if held alongside the midterms. Credit the party under which each winner was elected, regardless of later affiliation changes or vacancies. Independents who formally caucus with a party or announce that intention before the midterms count for that party. If a relevant independent's choice is unknown on election day, wait until their announcement or 4 January 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. With no announcement by then, credit no party for that member. This is a caucus-choice deadline, not a deadline for every election result. Use information from the relevant state electoral authorities, Congress and agreement among reliable news reports.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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