Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, versus prices Republican Party at a 3% chance and Democratic Party at 96%.
Exactly one party answer is YES for the winner of Nevada's 4th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House midterm election on 3 November 2026 (Eastern Time). A candidate's party is the ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House races are conclusively called when the reporting calls are conclusive; if neither major-party affiliation is listed, use the party the candidate most recently said they intended to caucus with at that time. A consensus of credible election reporting determines the result; if it is ambiguous, use only the official Federal Election Commission result.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
