Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 46% chance and No at 54%.
YES if NewJeans, the K-pop girl group that debuted in 2022, officially puts out at least one new song in the period from 3 February 2026 to 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (Los Angeles time). A song counts as put out once it is officially available to download or stream; a live performance on its own does not count. A new song credited to NewJeans counts whatever the line-up of the group at that time. Songs credited only to individual members (solo work), to a sub-unit, or to any act name other than NewJeans (for example NJZ) do not count. A song released jointly with other groups counts if NewJeans is credited equally with them as a primary artist. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations and remixes do not count. Listings on official streaming or download services, such as Apple Music or Spotify, decide. If no qualifying song is put out by the deadline, the answer is NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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