Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, versus prices September 30 at a <1% chance and December 31 at 41%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast (48.589446° N, 37.831430° E) between market creation and the end of the specified date, ET — 05:59 CET/CEST on the following morning. Chasiv Yar will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by then, this market will resolve to "No". For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market's resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, the shading must persist until the next finalised ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading reflecting either "Assessed Russian Control", "Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine" or "Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours" will qualify. "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine" will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities by a darker grey line. If all the area within the municipality is shaded red but the shading does not precisely match the border, such that a tiny amount of grey remains along the edge of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/XPJfnzoeRtB7UEmDA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red on the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement giving Russia de jure control will not qualify — actual control must be established. Note: any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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