Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 09:21 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 1% chance and No at 99%.
YES if Moonshot is the company in second place in the Labs table of the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard on arena.ai (arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev, Overall view, ranked by labs) when it is checked on 31 October 2026 at 12:00 PM ET; if any other company is second, NO. Models marked AutoEval at that time are left out, even if they show a rank or score. Companies are ordered by the Lab Rank column. If that ranking is unavailable or does not give a clear order, each company is placed by its best-ranked model in the Models view of the leaderboard; models sharing a rank are ordered by which one appears higher on the page, and any tie that remains is broken alphabetically by company name as listed for this event (for example, Google comes before SpaceXAI). If the leaderboard cannot be reached at the check time, the prediction stays open and the first check after it is back online decides. If the leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable, NO. The arena.ai WebDev leaderboard is the deciding evidence.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
