Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
This market resolves Yes if Recep Tayyip Erdogan ceases to be President of the Republic of Turkiye for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, Central European local time. Otherwise, it resolves No. An announcement before the deadline that Erdogan will resign or be removed from office immediately qualifies for Yes, regardless of when the resignation or removal takes effect. This market also resolves Yes if Erdogan is detained, effectively removed from office, or otherwise permanently prevented from carrying out the duties of the presidency within the market timeframe. Resolution is based on official information from Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the government of Turkiye. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @Reuters
