Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:05 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 29% chance and No at 71%.
YES if the official result of the U.S. House election in Colorado's 6th congressional district on 3 November 2026 is a win by the Democratic nominee by at least 35 but less than 40 percentage points; otherwise NO. The margin is the gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the first- and second-placed candidates, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast. The Democratic and Republican nominees stand for their parties; independent candidates represent neither, and a nominee replaced before election day is succeeded by the party's replacement. A margin lying exactly on the line between two bands counts in the higher band. If an independent or other unlisted candidate finishes first, every answer is NO. If two candidates tie for the most votes: a tie between the Democratic and Republican nominees goes to the lowest band of the nominee whose surname on the ballot comes first alphabetically (a Democratic win by less than 5 points, or a Republican win); a tie between one of them and an unlisted candidate goes to that nominee's lowest band; a tie among unlisted candidates makes every answer NO. The official count is used once it is final; a recount started before certification keeps the prediction open until it is completed and certified. If the outcome is still unknown at 11:59 PM ET on 30 June 2027, every answer is NO. Colorado's official certified results decide, with overwhelming agreement among reliable reports as backup.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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