Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 13% chance and No at 87%.
YES applies if, from 24 June 2026 through 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, at least one official of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) acting in an official capacity for the agency, such as an inspector, another staff member or the Director General, is physically present inside the recognised boundaries of one of three Iranian sites: the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant or the Natanz Nuclear Facility. Pickaxe Mountain is treated as outside the Natanz site. Visits to any other location in Iran, and remote or virtual inspections, do not count. NO applies if no such visit takes place in that period. Official IAEA information decides, together with consistent reputable reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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