Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
YES applies when conclusive proof identifies Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator or creators behind Bitcoin’s pseudonym, during the period from the prediction opening through 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A verifiable transfer from an original Satoshi wallet or equivalent decisive proof qualifies; mere claims, circumstantial clues, or an unresolved dispute do not. Use the evidence itself, with broad agreement among reputable reports as fallback. Otherwise the outcome is NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
