Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Raman lead from 0 to under 4 points at a 29% chance, ahead of Raman lead from 8 to under 12 points at 22% and Raman lead from 4 to under 8 points at 17%.
This prediction covers the general runoff for Mayor of Los Angeles, California, held on 3 November 2026 between Karen Bass (the Bass answers) and Nithya Raman (the Raman answers). The winning margin is the gap, in percentage points, between the candidates who finish first and second; each candidate's share is their valid votes divided by the total of all valid votes in the race. A displayed answer is YES when its candidate finishes first and the margin lies inside its range; a margin exactly on a boundary belongs to the higher range. If the two leading candidates finish with identical valid-vote totals and both appear among the answers, the lowest range of the one whose surname comes first alphabetically is YES (“Bass lead from 0 to under 4 points”); if only one of them appears, that candidate's lowest range is YES. Every displayed answer is NO if neither tied leader appears among the answers, if someone other than Karen Bass or Nithya Raman wins, or if the result is not known definitively by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, so at most one displayed answer can be YES. The official count decides once it has been certified; if a recount starts before certification, the prediction stays open until the recount ends and the count is certified. Broad agreement in reliable news coverage decides; where that is unclear, official results from the City of Los Angeles and Los Angeles County decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
