Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 6% chance and No at 94%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee by 05:59 CET/CEST on January 1, 2027, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between that European country and the government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for that country to defend Ukraine or to intervene directly on its behalf. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying security guarantee requires language equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5-style mutual defence commitment: the European country must undertake to respond militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine's defence through binding defence obligations. Examples of qualifying language include commitments modelled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea or the Philippines, or on NATO's Article 5, which obliges the United States to "act to meet the common danger" through military force if an ally is attacked. Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms and non-binding pledges will not qualify. Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the US-Ukraine bilateral security agreement of June 13, 2024, the Taiwan Relations Act, and G7 or EU security arrangements that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defence guarantees. A qualifying agreement must be jointly announced and finalised, and must take the form of a treaty, an executive agreement, a memorandum of understanding, a joint declaration or an equivalent written instrument. Announcements that are statements of intent, or that are contingent, exploratory or otherwise not indicative of a formalised policy, will not count. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Qualifying European countries include: Albania; Andorra; Armenia; Austria; Azerbaijan; Belgium; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Bulgaria; Croatia; Cyprus; Czechia; Denmark; Estonia; Finland; France; Georgia; Germany; Greece; Hungary; Iceland; Ireland; Italy; Latvia; Liechtenstein; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Malta; Moldova; Monaco; Montenegro; the Netherlands; North Macedonia; Norway; Poland; Portugal; Romania; San Marino; Serbia; Slovakia; Slovenia; Spain; Sweden; Switzerland; Ukraine; the United Kingdom.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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