Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
YES applies when one artwork in which a substantial part of the artistic content was generated by an AI system (a generative model, neural network or other machine-learning system, or an AI-driven robot) sells for at least $10,000,000 at Poly Auction, China Guardian, Bonhams, Phillips, Sotheby's or Christie's, including those houses' rooms worldwide and their online-only sales, in an auction that closes between 31 August 2026 and 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Other auctioneers, and private, dealer, gallery, NFT-marketplace and other platform sales, do not count. The lot must be identified as AI-generated by the auction house in its lot description, catalogue or official sale material, by the artists involved, or by broad agreement among reliable reports. Works where AI was used only incidentally (for example for upscaling, retouching or colour correction), works that merely depict or discuss AI, and works made only with conventional digital tools do not qualify. Use the final sale price in US dollars as reported by the house; when both a hammer price and a total with the buyer's premium appear, use the latter, with nothing added or removed for tax, shipping or other charges. For another currency, use the house's own USD figure if published, otherwise the exchange rate at the close of the sale. Estimates, guarantees, bids that miss the reserve, withdrawn lots, and groups of works not offered and sold as one artwork are excluded. The auction must close by the deadline; if the house has not published official results by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO applies. Official results from the auction house decide; reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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