Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
YES requires the United States to officially announce by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET that some part of the Chagos Archipelago will fall under US sovereignty; otherwise NO. This means transfer from the UK or Mauritius into formal US governance or jurisdiction, whether as a state, territory or another US classification. Basing rights, a military lease or an access deal alone is insufficient. An announcement by the US together with either the UK or Mauritius qualifies even if the transfer awaits ratification, parliamentary approval or other legislative conditions. It must concern an official agreement or action, such as an executive order or enacted law; a social-media post alone does not count. Official information from those three governments is used. Agreement among reputable reports confirming that Chagos land has actually come under US sovereignty also qualifies.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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