Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
YES requires an additional country to sign a formal agreement normalising relations with Israel within the Abraham Accords framework by 31 October 2026 at 23:59 ET. Both governments must publicly acknowledge the agreement and clearly link it to the accords or their continuation. A signatory can qualify even if diplomatic relations with Israel already existed. Somaliland counts as a country here. Existing members at the prediction’s opening, including UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, are excluded. An announcement of intent without the formal signing is insufficient. Otherwise NO applies. Official government statements are primary; consistent reputable reporting can also establish the signing.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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