Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 7.9 or lower at a 79% chance, ahead of 8.0 to 8.1 at 12% and 8.2 to 8.3 at 8%.
This prediction is about the strongest earthquake anywhere on Earth from 1 January 2026 at 12:00:00 AM ET to 31 December 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. YES goes to the band that contains that quake's preferred magnitude in the catalogue of the US Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, read to one decimal place (for example 7.9); every other band is NO. If the strongest quake of the year is below 8.0, YES is '7.9 or lower'; that already covers the magnitude 7.8 quake recorded earlier in 2026. The magnitude that counts is the USGS preferred value as displayed when this prediction closes: 3 January 2027 at 11:59:59 PM ET, or 7 January 2027 at 11:59:59 PM ET when the extension applies. The extension applies only if a quake inside the window that could be the strongest still has no published or final USGS preferred magnitude at the normal close; it gives USGS time to settle that value. Changes USGS makes after the close are ignored, even for a quake late in December. If a quake inside the window is still missing from the USGS catalogue when the extended period ends, another credible seismological authority decides its magnitude. Official USGS earthquake data (earthquake.usgs.gov) decides; reliable scientific or news sources are used only in that missing-data case.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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