Which outcome for ACA credits and the House?

As of 11 October 2026, 21:25 UTC, versus prices Not Extended & Democrats at a 92% chance and Not Extended & Republicans at 9%.

Category

other

Closes

2026-11-03 00:00 UTC

Answers

2

Chances as of

2026-10-11 21:25 UTC

This is a combined market resolving on two questions together: (1) Will enhanced ACA premium tax credits be extended in 2025? Affordable Care Act enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 unless extended by the federal government. (2) Which party wins the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 elections. Each option pairs an outcome of question 1 with the party that wins the House, and the market resolves to the option matching both actual outcomes.

Answer options

• Not Extended & Democrats92%
• Not Extended & Republicans9%

Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.

Reported by @JesseFFerguson