Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 11:07 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 43% chance and No at 57%.
YES if Google is the second-ranked AI company when the arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard is checked at 12:00 PM ET on 30 November 2026, with the Labs filter and style control off (Adjustments: None). Use the Lab Rank column. If that column does not clearly establish the order, rank each company by its highest-ranked eligible model in the Models view under the same setting. Models marked AutoEval at the check are excluded even if they show rank or score. For ties, compare underlying unrounded Arena scores and then alphabetical company name, with Google before SpaceXAI. If any other company, whether or not it has its own prediction, is second, Google is NO. If the leaderboard is unavailable at the scheduled check, use the first successful check after it returns; if it never returns, NO. Official information from the arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
