Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican: 6 to under 9 points at a 26% chance, ahead of Republican: 3 to under 6 points at 20% and Republican: 9 to under 12 points at 16%.
For the FL-11 House election expected on 3 November 2026, select the winning party and its victory-margin band. Compute the absolute difference between the two highest candidates’ shares of all valid votes cast. The Democratic nominee represents Democrat and the Republican nominee represents Republican; independent candidates represent neither. A replacement party nominee chosen before election day takes the original nominee’s place. An exact band boundary belongs to the higher band. If listed candidates tie for first, use the lowest margin band of the one whose surname on the ballot is alphabetically earliest, including candidates represented by party labels. If a listed and an unlisted candidate tie, use the listed candidate’s lowest band; a tie solely among unlisted candidates yields Other. Use the official count. A recount started before the count becomes official keeps the question open until that recount finishes and the count is official. An outcome still undetermined at 11:59 PM ET on 30 June 2027 yields Other. The certifying state election authority’s official results are primary; overwhelming agreement among reputable reports may also be used. Only the matching option is YES; the others are NO. If Other wins, no displayed party band is YES.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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