Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 73% chance and No at 27%.
YES requires OpenAI’s next qualifying Astra model to debut with a USD output-token price of at least $40 per million. Use the Standard, Short context rate at its first availability to the general public, as announced by OpenAI or shown on its official API pricing page. Introductory rates count; Do not use rates for Batch or Flex, speed modes, extended context, cached tokens, regional service or data residency. If several eligible models debut on the same date, use the highest qualifying price. The model’s name or identifier must contain Astra, ignoring case, and designate version 6.1 or later; added descriptors, dates and prefixes or suffixes do not matter. Thus an Astra 7 model qualifies. Version 6 does not qualify, including its snapshots, promotions, rollouts and Pro or Fast modes. Sol, Terra and Luna tier models and their successors are excluded, as are task or modality families such as Cyber, Daybreak, Codex, GPT Image and Realtime. A qualifying debut below $40 gives NO. NO also applies if no eligible model reaches the public by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. OpenAI’s official announcements and API pricing records control, with reliable reports used for additional verification. The price at debut controls, rather than later price changes.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
