Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:08 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 25% chance and No at 75%.
YES requires a public, definitive announcement of Matthew Van Houten’s departure from the office of Tompkins County District Attorney in New York during the interval beginning at 16:17:21.554585 UTC on 6 October 2026 and ending at 11:59 PM ET on 30 November 2026. The notice must come from Van Houten, his DA’s office, New York’s Governor’s Office, or an authorised representative. Any qualifying announcement must say he has left or will leave by resignation, removal or another means, with the intended effective departure within 18 months after the notice. The actual exit may occur after the announcement cutoff. Temporary leave, dated or indefinite suspension, administrative leave and temporary reassignment do not count. Neither do tentative or conditional plans, a resignation offer awaiting acceptance or already refused, media reports of intentions, jokes, sarcasm or notices from unauthorised people. An actual permanent departure without an eligible announcement also earns YES if agreement among reputable reports confirms it by the cutoff. Otherwise the answer is NO. Statements from Van Houten, the DA’s office and the Governor’s Office are primary, with reputable reporting also usable as evidence.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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