Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Does not return by November 1, 2026 at a 79% chance, ahead of October 1 - 31, 2026 at 19% and September 15 - 30, 2026 at <1%.
This market will resolve based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge, station HU442027, first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the ICPDR through DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission’s official Low Water Level threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines “normal levels” for this market. “Does not return by November 1, 2026” will resolve to “Yes” if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff will not be considered, and any return to normal levels on or after November 1, 2026 will not affect resolution. Resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market’s start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to remain at or above 93 centimeters for any length of time. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters will resolve to “Yes”. All other brackets will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be DanubeHIS: https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO. If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
