Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 10% chance and No at 90%.
YES applies only if the US Social Security Administration cannot fully pay benefits by 31 December 2027 at 11:59 PM ET because the combined reserves of the Social Security trust funds have run dry, so that benefits have to be cut or halted. A forecast of future depletion does not count, and a temporary debt-ceiling payment interruption does not qualify; the reserves must actually run out. If the stated insolvency has not actually occurred by the cutoff, NO applies. Official SSA or White House publications control, with dependable reporting as fallback.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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