Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democrat 45-50% at a 31% chance, ahead of Democrat 40-45% at 28% and Democrat 35-40% at 22%.
This prediction is about the 2026 general election for the US House seat of Maryland's 5th congressional district (MD-05), scheduled for 3 November 2026. The margin is the gap, in percentage points, between the vote shares of the candidates who finish first and second; each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the race. 'Republican' means the Republican Party's nominee and 'Democrat' means the Democratic Party's nominee. Independents and minor-party candidates count for neither, and if a party swaps its nominee before election day, the new nominee takes over that party's answers. A Democrat band is YES only if the Democratic nominee finishes first and the margin lies inside that band; 'Republican wins' is YES if the Republican nominee finishes first, whatever the margin. A margin landing exactly on the line between two bands belongs to the higher band. If anyone other than these two nominees finishes first, every answer is NO, so at most one answer can be YES. Ties for first place: between the Republican and the Democratic nominee, the one whose surname as printed on the ballot comes first alphabetically is treated as the winner by the smallest margin, so YES is 'Republican wins' or 'Democrat 0-15%'; between one of these nominees and any other candidate, the nominee is treated the same way; a tie only among other candidates makes every answer NO. Only the certified official count settles this prediction; if a recount begins before certification, settlement waits until the recount is finished and the total is official. If no definitive result is available by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every answer is NO. Official certified results, as published by the Maryland State Board of Elections, decide; overwhelming and consistent reporting by reliable news outlets may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
