Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 11:06 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 38% chance and No at 62%.
YES if Anthropic owns the model in first place in the Overall category of the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on 30 November 2026; otherwise NO. The reading uses the Leaderboard tab with Style Control switched on under Adjustments and the view filtered to Models, taken from the Rank column. Any model labelled AutoEval at the check is ignored, even if it shows a rank or score. Models are ordered by their displayed rank; models sharing a rank are split by Arena score, including unrounded values in the data shown beneath the table, and a tie that still remains is broken by the alphabetical order of the company names (for example Google ahead of SpaceXAI). If the leaderboard cannot be reached at the check time, the result waits for the first successful check after it is back online. If the leading model belongs to any other company, or the leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable, the answer is NO. Only the arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard decides; no other ranking table is used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
