Prediction
Answer Options
Learn as you go
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 92% chance and No at 8%.
YES means a candidate takes more than half of the valid first-round votes in Louisiana’s LA-03 House election on 3 November 2026. A result at or below 50% is NO, and a later runoff result cannot change the first-round answer. The first-round outcome must be settled by 11:59 PM ET on 31 March 2027; if the result is still not definitive at that point, use NO. Recounts or later corrections matter only if they are part of the authority’s definitive first-round result before the cutoff. Start with consistent accounts from reputable election reporting. Where those accounts disagree or remain inconclusive, use the certified result published by the Louisiana authority responsible for the LA-03 election. That certified record is the fallback and controls any ambiguity.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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