Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 13:00 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
YES if Microsoft is the company in second place in the Labs view of the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard (filtered for Labs) when it is checked on 30 November 2026 at 12:00 PM ET; if any other company is second, NO. Models marked AutoEval at that time are left out, whatever rank or score they show. Companies are ordered by the Lab Rank column. If that ranking is unclear or not shown, each company is placed by its best-ranked model in the Models view of the leaderboard; models sharing a rank are ordered by which one appears higher on the page, and any tie that remains is broken alphabetically by company name as listed for this event (for example, Google comes before SpaceXAI). If the leaderboard cannot be reached at the check time, the prediction stays open and the first successful check after it is back online decides. If the leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable, NO. The arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard is the deciding evidence.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
