Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 09:19 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
YES only if Jacinda Ardern is the person officially selected to become the United Nations' next Secretary-General in the selection process expected in 2026; if someone else is chosen, NO. A temporary, interim or placeholder Secretary-General appointed before that selection does not count. If no selection takes place or its result is not known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. Official United Nations information decides; reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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