Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by 05:59 CET/CEST on January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Lai is released on parole, on bond or under any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transferring Lai to another place of custody, such as a different prison, a court or a hospital within the correctional system, will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes". His extradition to another country where he remains in custody will not count either. Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while he remains in the custody of the correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government authorities or corrections departments, although a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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