Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 21:27 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 9% chance and No at 91%.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried on vessels that are built in the United States, owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the United States, and crewed by U.S. personnel. This market resolves to “Yes” if, by January 1, 2027 at 05:59 CET, the Jones Act is repealed, modified, invalidated, or superseded by new law in a way that fully removes at least one of those domestic shipping requirements. Otherwise, it resolves to “No”. Removing any one of the listed requirements is enough to qualify. For example, if the requirement that qualifying ships be built in the U.S. or flagged to the U.S. is fully eliminated, that would count even if the ownership and crew requirements remain in place. For the purposes of this market, “new legislation” includes not only an act of Congress, but also any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally binding executive action that effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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