Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 09:20 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
YES if independent candidate Todd Achilles wins Idaho's 2026 election for the U.S. Senate, held on 3 November 2026 (Idaho local time), including any runoff that decides the seat; otherwise NO. An independent candidate never counts as the Democratic or Republican nominee, whatever their ties to either party. If anyone else wins (for example the Democratic nominee, a Libertarian, a Constitution Party candidate or another independent), the answer is NO. The result is settled once AP, Fox News and NBC all project the same winner; if that never happens, Idaho's official certified result decides. There is no other fixed cut-off date.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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