Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 20:43 UTC, versus prices December 31, 2027 at a 10% chance and December 31, 2028 at 17%.
This market resolves YES if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to pay benefits in full due to a lack of solvency by 05:59 CET on the morning after the specified date. Otherwise it resolves NO. For the purposes of this market, Social Security is considered to lack solvency if the combined asset reserves of its Trust Funds are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lapse in payments linked to the debt ceiling does not qualify. A projected depletion date alone does not qualify — actual depletion must occur. The primary resolution source is official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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