Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican 35-40% at a 30% chance, ahead of Republican 40-45% at 21% and Republican 45-50% at 18%.
This covers the 2026 U.S. House election in Kentucky's 1st congressional district (KY-01), currently expected on 3 November 2026. The winning margin is the gap, in percentage points, between the vote shares of the candidates who finish first and second; each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by the total of valid votes in the race. A Republican band is YES when the Republican Party's nominee finishes first and the margin falls inside that band. A margin exactly on the boundary between two bands counts in the higher band. "Democratic candidate wins" is YES when the Democratic Party's nominee finishes first, whatever the margin. Independent candidates represent neither party. If either party's nominee is replaced before election day, that party's answers follow the replacement nominee. If a candidate who is neither the Democratic nor the Republican nominee finishes first outright, every answer is NO. Ties for first place on valid votes: if the two party nominees tie, the one whose surname on the ballot comes first alphabetically is treated as the winner; if one party nominee ties with a candidate who is neither party's nominee, that nominee is treated as the winner; the treated winner's lowest answer is then YES: the Republican band starting at 0 for the Republican nominee, or "Democratic candidate wins" for the Democratic nominee. If the tie involves only candidates who are neither party's nominee, every answer is NO. Only the official vote count decides, once it has been made official; if a recount begins before that point, the result waits until the recount is complete and the count is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every answer is NO. Official results published by the state authority that certifies this election decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used. At most one answer is YES; all others are NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
