Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 11:07 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 7% chance and No at 93%.
YES requires a GitHub incident affecting Git Operations to begin during the interval from 21:58:15.873294 UTC on 8 October 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on 15 October 2026. The GitHub Status page or its official API must show incident impact Critical and list Git Operations among affected components when the incident reaches Resolved status. Ignore subsequent revisions. None, Minor and Major impact levels do not count. A component status such as degraded performance or major outage is insufficient without a Critical incident. If an incident that began before the cutoff remains unresolved then, wait until its official resolution or the end of 22 October 2026, ET, whichever comes first. Use the official information available at that point. Scheduled maintenance and incidents that omit Git Operations, including those listing no components, do not count. Without an eligible incident, the answer is NO. GitHub’s status page and API at githubstatus.com and githubstatus.com/api are primary; agreement among reputable reports may also establish the result.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
