Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
YES applies only if, by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, a Bitcoin consensus-layer upgrade is active and enforced on mainnet and enables generally available post-quantum-secure signatures for standard transactions. Proposals, drafts, code releases, miner signals, node adoption, testnet or other-network activation, wallet or off-chain measures, and layer-2 changes alone do not qualify. The new transaction types must be valid under consensus rules, even if optional or not widely used. Activation means enforcement in mainnet blocks after any lock-in or activation threshold. Agreement among reputable reports controls. Otherwise the answer is NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
