Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 11:08 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if Black Forest Labs owns the model in first place on arena.ai's Text-to-Image Arena leaderboard (Overall, Models view, read from the Rank column) when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on 30 November 2026; if any other company owns that model, NO. Models flagged AutoEval at the check are left out, even when they show a rank or a score. Models are ordered by their shown rank; where several share a rank, the one placed higher in the table goes first, and any tie left after that goes to alphabetical order of company names in this event: OpenAI, Reve, Meta, Google, Microsoft AI, ByteDance, SpaceXAI, Ideogram, Alibaba, Luma AI, Recraft, Black Forest Labs and Tencent; a company outside this list is compared by its own name in the same alphabetical order. If the leaderboard cannot be reached at the check time, the first successful check after it is back online decides. If it disappears for good, NO. This arena.ai leaderboard is the only deciding record.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
