Will a Westminster by-election be called in Clacton by 31 Dec?

As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 11% chance and No at 89%.

Category

politics

Closes

2027-01-01 04:59 UTC

Answers

2

Chances as of

2026-10-11 00:30 UTC

YES applies if the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery issues a writ for a by-election to the UK House of Commons in the Clacton constituency between 18 August 2026 and 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (4:59 AM UK time on 1 January 2027). The issue of the writ must be confirmed within that window. A writ issued as part of a UK general election does not count, and council or other local by-elections in the Clacton area do not count either. If no such writ is issued in that window, NO applies. Official UK government information decides, including from UK Parliament and the local authority running the poll; reliable news coverage may also be used.

Answer options

• Yes11%
• No89%

Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.

Reported by versus Markets