Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 09:21 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 21% chance and No at 79%.
YES if OpenAI owns the model with the top Mathematics score on the LiveBench leaderboard (livebench.ai) when it is read at 12:00 PM ET on 31 October 2026, using the most recent LiveBench release with the category set to Mathematics; otherwise NO. Higher scores rank ahead of lower ones. When models show exactly the same score, the one whose shown “cost per successful task” is cheaper ranks ahead; if they are still level, the company whose name comes first alphabetically among the answers of this event ranks ahead (for example, Google before SpaceXAI). If the top-ranked model belongs to another company, the answer is NO. If the leaderboard cannot be reached at the check time, the reading is taken at the first check after it is back online; if it becomes permanently unavailable, the answer is NO. The LiveBench leaderboard decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
