Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican lead from 25 to under 30 points at a 40% chance, ahead of Republican lead from 0 to under 5 points at 40% and Republican lead of 30 points or more at 39%.
This prediction is settled by the official result of the 2026 general election for the US House of Representatives seat of California's 23rd congressional district (CA-23), currently scheduled for 3 November 2026. Primary elections and contests for state legislative seats do not count. The margin is the gap, in percentage points, between the candidates who finish first and second. Each of their two shares equals that candidate's valid votes divided by the total of all valid votes cast in this House race, and the smaller share is then subtracted from the larger one. YES goes to the answer that names the party of the first-place finisher and whose range contains that margin; the answer 'Democratic victory' has no range and is YES whenever a Democratic candidate finishes first, whatever the margin. Each range includes its lower figure and excludes its upper figure, so a margin landing exactly on a boundary goes to the higher range (for example, a lead of exactly 25 points counts as 'Republican lead from 25 to under 30 points', not 'Republican lead from 20 to under 25 points'). The Democratic answers cover any candidate on the general-election ballot who represents the Democratic Party, and the Republican answers any candidate on that ballot who represents the Republican Party; if the top two finishers belong to the same party, that party's answer for the winner's lead applies. A candidate of any other party or of no party counts for neither. If first place ends in a tie between two or more candidates and at least one of them is a Democratic or Republican candidate, the tied Democratic or Republican candidate whose surname as listed on the ballot comes first alphabetically decides, and YES goes to the lowest answer of that candidate's party: 'Democratic victory' for a Democrat, 'Republican lead from 0 to under 5 points' for a Republican. If the first-place finisher, or every candidate tied for first place, is neither a Democratic nor a Republican candidate, every listed answer is NO. The vote count decides once it has been made official; if a recount begins before then, the prediction stays open until the recount is finished and the count is official. If the result is still not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every listed answer is NO. At most one listed answer is YES. Certified results published by the California state election authority that certifies this race decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
