Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 15% chance and No at 85%.
This market resolves Yes if Russia and Ukraine officially conclude a ceasefire agreement on or before January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET; otherwise it resolves No. Resolution relies on official information from Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @Reuters
