Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 09:54 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 7% chance and No at 93%.
YES if Itamar Ben Gvir is the first person to take up the post of Israel's Minister of Defense within the first government put together after Israel's 2026 Knesset election, on or before 28 February 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. The appointment only counts once the Knesset backs that government in a confidence vote or later approves the person's appointment to it; interim or caretaker ministers do not count, and later replacements do not change the result. A renamed successor post counts only if reliable reporting confirms it keeps the main Defense duties; a post that takes over only secondary duties does not. If the main duties are split across several successor posts, the appointee whose full name comes first alphabetically counts. NO if someone else is the first person who qualifies, or if nobody qualifies by 28 February 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Official Government of Israel information decides, with agreement among reputable news reporting as support.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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