Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, versus prices Republican Party at a 96% chance and Democratic Party at 3%.
YES goes to the party whose candidate wins the U.S. House seat for Indiana's 8th congressional district (IN-08) at the 2026 midterm election, held on 3 November 2026. When all 2026 House races have been conclusively called, read the winner's ballot listing or another clear affiliation. If neither Democrat nor Republican appears, use the party that candidate most recently said they would caucus with at that point; if this still points to neither party, both answers are NO. At most one answer can be YES. Broad agreement among reliable election desks decides the result; if it is ambiguous, the official result of the U.S. Federal Election Commission (fec.gov) decides. There is no deadline for the result: the prediction is settled once the winner and their party are clear under these rules. All dates here refer to US Eastern Time (ET).
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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