Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 2,650,000 to under 2,800,000 at a 37% chance, ahead of 2,800,000 to under 2,950,000 at 35% and 2,950,000 to under 3,100,000 at 15%.
YES goes to the bracket that contains how many valid votes are cast in Massachusetts' 2026 midterm election for US Senator, held on 3 November 2026; every other bracket is NO. The total includes all votes certified for any candidate, including minor-party, independent and write-in candidates, and for any non-candidate options on the ballot. Blank and invalid votes are left out, so a blanks line in the official returns is not added. If the race uses ranked-choice or preferential voting, the first-round total counts. A total exactly on the boundary between two brackets belongs to the higher bracket. If the result is not definitively known by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the lowest bracket (fewer than 2,200,000) is YES. Official results published by the Massachusetts authority that certifies the election decide; overwhelming agreement in reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
