What's the winning margin in Illinois's 1st district?

As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democratic: 40 to under 45 points at a 29% chance, ahead of Democratic: 45 to under 50 points at 22% and Democratic: 35 to under 40 points at 21%.

Category

politics

Closes

2026-11-04 04:59 UTC

Answers

10

Chances as of

2026-10-11 00:30 UTC

This prediction is about the 2026 general election for the U.S. House seat of Illinois's 1st congressional district (IL-01), scheduled for 3 November 2026. The margin is the vote share of the candidate in first place minus the vote share of the candidate in second place, in percentage points. Each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast for all candidates in this IL-01 contest; blank and void ballots are left out. If the Democratic nominee finishes first, YES is the Democratic answer whose range contains the margin; if the Republican nominee finishes first, YES is "Republican victory", whatever the margin. Republican and Democratic mean the candidates nominated by those two parties; if a party replaces its nominee before election day, the replacement takes over that party's answers. An independent candidate never counts for either party. If a candidate other than these two nominees finishes first, every listed answer is NO. A margin that falls exactly on the line between two ranges belongs to the higher range. Tie for first place: if the Republican and Democratic nominees tie, the one whose surname as printed on the ballot is earlier in the alphabet is treated as first, and YES is that party's lowest answer ("Republican victory" or "Democratic: 0 to under 15 points"). If one of these nominees ties for first with any other candidate, that nominee's lowest answer is YES. If only other candidates share first place, every listed answer is NO. Settlement uses the official vote count once it has been certified. If a recount begins before certification, the prediction stays open until the recount is finished and the result is certified. If there is still no definitive result by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every listed answer is NO. At most one listed answer can be YES; all others are NO. The certified official results published by Illinois's state election authority decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.