Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 10% chance and No at 90%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina makes Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Statements from Peter Thiel indicating intent to seek citizenship from Argentina will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". Statements from Argentina or its representatives indicating vague or conditional intent to make Peter Thiel a citizen will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Only Argentina's actually making Peter Thiel a citizen will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Honorary citizenship will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve according to statements from representatives of Argentina or Peter Thiel. This market may also resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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