Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 21:37 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 72% chance and No at 28%.
YES if China's year-on-year GDP growth rate (%) for the third quarter (Q3) of 2026, as first published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) in its preliminary GDP accounting release for that quarter, scheduled for 20 October 2026 (Beijing time, UTC+8), is at least 4.3% but under 4.6%; otherwise NO. The range includes its lower figure and stops just below its upper figure, so a published value exactly on the upper figure counts for the next higher range and gives NO here. Only the figure in that first release counts; any later revision, including one published with the next quarter's data, does not change the result. If no Q3 2026 figure has been published by the date on which the next quarter's figures are scheduled for release, the most recent quarter with published data is used instead. Official information from the NBS, including its press releases (stats.gov.cn) and its official release calendar, decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
