Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 21:23 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump signs a bill into law, or takes any executive action, changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by 05:59 CET on 1 January 2027. Otherwise it resolves NO. Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; a law applying only to specific companies or institutions will not qualify towards a YES resolution. If capital gains tax is eliminated only for particular types or classes of crypto asset — only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American-issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs, for instance — that will still count towards a YES resolution. If the bill is signed into law, or the executive action is instituted, before the resolution date, that suffices to resolve this market YES regardless of when it takes effect. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the US federal government, though a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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